章节目录
Pt. I Solon's warning 1 If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? 5 2 A bizarre accounting method 22 3 A mathematical meditation on history 43 4 Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual 70 5 Survival of the least fit - can evolution be fooled by randomness? 79 6 Skewness and asymmetry 97 7 The problem of induction 116 Pt. II Monkeys on typewriters 8 Too many millionaires next door 139 9 It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg 149 10 Loser takes all - on the nonlinearities of life 172 11 Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind 182 Pt. III Wax in my ears 12 Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box 226 13 Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism 234 14 Bacchus abandons antony 245 Epilogue : Solon told you so 250 Postscript : three afterthoughts in the shower 253
内容简介
Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you.
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