Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading– Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS : Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year “[ Fooled by Randomness ] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.” –Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink “The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.” –Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999 “Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.” –Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving “Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.” –Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate “We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.” –Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance “Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.” –National Review “If asked to name the five best books written about markets, Fooled by Randomness would be on my list.” –Jack D. Schwager, author of Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders “Excellent and thought-provoking . . . an entertaining book.” –Financial Times

美国犹太人艾伦•格林斯潘，响当当的大人物，他是美国第十三任联邦储备委员会主席，任期跨越6届美国总统。在他人生的巅峰时刻，他被称为全球的“经济沙皇”、“美元总统”，无论走到哪里，都会在红地毯上受到国家元首一般的接待。他的公文包里藏着美国乃至全球“经济引擎”的秘密，人们称他为伟大的经济学大师、预言家、魔术师……美国的一家媒体在1996年美国总统选举时说道：“谁当美国总统都无所谓，只要让格林斯潘当美联储主席就可以了。” 然而，在格林斯潘盛大谢幕前后，对他的批评声不绝于耳；次贷危机爆发之后，各种质疑更是层出不穷。人们开始追问格林斯潘主政期间的种种失策，赠予他一连串新的“头衔”：机会主义者、谄媚者、两面派……然而，事实呢？真相在哪里？幸好，大人物终于说话了。 格林斯潘，“我为什么没有预测到2008年的金融危机” 任美联储主席长达18年半的格林斯潘，曾被广泛赞誉帮助了美国经济腾飞的格林斯潘，好像突然之间在2008年金融危机之后被拉下了圣坛。转瞬之间，大人物成了历史的罪人，世界经济的操盘手竟是一介莽夫，一片片挞伐甚至责骂之声倾泻而下——诺奖得主保罗•克鲁格曼甚至直言不讳地称格林斯潘是“世界上最糟糕的前央行行长”。而这时，格林斯潘在想什么，他又在做什么？格林斯潘的这本新作《动荡的世界：风险、人性与未来的前景》也许就是这两个问题的最佳答案。 建立在虚幻之上的繁荣迟早会崩坍，大人物格林斯潘又如何不知。经过数年的缜密思维与研究分析，现在他开始反击了。在《动荡的世界》这本书中他声称，在这场经济危机发生前，几乎所有人都坚信已有的金融风险管理系统能够防止金融体系的崩溃，然而，悲剧还是发生了。原因是什么？

《21条颠扑不破的交易真理》主要内容包括优秀交易者所拥有的美德、恶习以及信念、自负者以及信念错误者往往亏损资金、信念是优秀交易者成功的基石、严以律己的交易者持续盈利、勇敢无畏大获全胜、直觉不等于一味的许愿等。

《银行新员工培训手册》稿是一本银行新员工必备的学习手册，集合了现有的基本全部银行业务。《银行新员工培训手册》是按照整个脉落，对银行产品体系进行了整理，形成了完整的银行产品体系，指导年轻人学习。

A bestselling classic (more than 200,000 copies sold in hardcover and paperback) that delves into the minds of some of the world's most successful traders.

企业是否应当，以及何时投资于新资本设备，增加工作组，或者开发新产品?为什么投资的传统经济模型未能解释美国和其他国家的投资开支活动？在本书中，阿维纳什·迪克西特和罗怕特·平迪克提供了一种关于企业资本投资决策的新理论，强调了大多数投资决策中的不可逆性，以及作出这些决策时经济环境中的不确定性。利用这种方法，他们回答了投资决策和投资支出出行为中的上述问题以及其他重要问题。 　　关于投资的这种新方法认识到了等待更好(但永远不完全)信息的期权价值。它利用了金融市场期权理论的一种类推，这使它比传统投资理论拥有一种更丰富的动态框架。作者以一种清晰而且系统的方式阐述了这种新理论，而且还巩固、综合并拓展了从这种理论中发展出来的各种研究领域。 　　本书揭示了理解企业投资行为的重要性。它阐述了这种理论在投资的产业动态均衡和政府政策方面的影响，还揭示了这种理论如何应用到特定产业及各种更宽泛的商业问题。 作者简介： 罗伯特·平迪克 麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院三菱银行经济学讲座教授。他的著作包括《世界能源需求结构》(麻省理工学院出版社)，与丹尼尔·鲁宾菲尔德(Danel L.Lubinfeld)合著的《计量经济模型与经济预测》(麦吉尔出版社)(中译本由机械工业出版社出版)，以及《微观经济学》(麦克米伦出版公司)(中译本由中国人民大学出版社出版)等。 阿维纳什·迪克西特，普林斯顿大学约翰·J·F·谢勒德(Jolm J.F.Sherrerd')第52任大学经济学讲座教授。他的著作包括与维克多·诺曼(Victor Norman)合著的《国际贸易理论》（剑桥大学出版社），与巴利·内拉巴夫(Barry Nalebuff)合著的《战略性思考》(诺顿出版公司)。

本书试图从正反两个方面来探讨系统化的投资方法，正面，介绍一套完整的技术分析操作方法，包括研究大势、选择个股、买卖决策、资金管理、投资组合管理等方面(第二～六章)；反面，介绍投资者常见的一些错误，希望投资者通过一次一类地避免重复性的错误，少走弯路，尽早踏上投资正途(第七～十二章)。. 本书的选股策略是从所有股票中挑选出由弱转强、同步转强、强者恒强三类，再由这三类股票组合成适当的投资组合(第四章)。.. 本书认为新股和次新股具有明显不同于“老股票”。的特殊性，并根据其特性提出了针对性的交易策略(附录一)。本书提供了丰富的图例，所有图例基本出自国内市场，所有图例都有适宜的标注和详细的解说。...

《股市趋势技术分析(最新修订原书第9版)(珍藏版)》内容简介：作为经典中的经典、证券投资的最佳入门书、股市图表分析的权威之作，《股市趋势技术分析》至今仍牢牢处于无法超越的地位。在赢得了投资者的无数口碑之后，它进行了最新一次修订，这就是第9版。 《股市趋势技术分析(最新修订原书第9版)(珍藏版)》强调了3条基本原理：股票价格倾向于有趋势地运动，成交量跟随趋势，一轮趋势一旦确立之后倾向于持续起作用。书中有大量内容讨论了常在某一趋势发生反转时形成的形态。作者主张交易者跟随趋势，而不是在一轮下降趋势完结之前就试图抓住市场的底部。这《股市趋势技术分析(最新修订原书第9版)(珍藏版)》之所以伟大，是因为它用具体图表走势对道氏理论进行了细致和精彩的描述，堪称技术分析的巅峰之作。读这《股市趋势技术分析(最新修订原书第9版)》能够大幅度提升交易者的交易思想、交易技略以及技术分析的大局观。 作为经典中的经典、证券投资的最佳入门书、股市图表分析的权威之作，《股市趋势技术分析》至今仍牢牢处于无法超越的地位。在赢得了投资者的无数口碑之后，它进行了最新一次修订，这就是第9版。 《股市趋势技术分析(最新修订原书第9版)(珍藏版)》强调了3条基本原理：股票价格倾向于有趋势地运动，成交量跟随趋势，一轮趋势一旦确立之后倾向于持续起作用。书中有大量内容讨论了常在某一趋势发生反转时形成的形态。作者主张交易者跟随趋势，而不是在一轮下降趋势完结之前就试图抓住市场的底部。这《股市趋势技术分析(最新修订原书第9版)(珍藏版)》之所以伟大，是因为它用具体图表走势对道氏理论进行了细致和精彩的描述，堪称技术分析的巅峰之作。读这《股市趋势技术分析(最新修订原书第9版)》能够大幅度提升交易者的交易思想、交易技略以及技术分析的大局观。 第9版的特色之处在于：扩展了迈吉的基本观点。用现代观点更新了道氏理论。加强了短线交易的市场分析。增添了期货交易的新内容，对期权交易做了必要的指点。

"金融投资经典系列最新珍藏版 从普通散户做起，直达成功交易者的经典指南，操作生涯不是梦！ 交易者十分自由，可以在全球任何一个地方生活、工作，可以对日常充耳不闻，可以不搭理任何人。这就是成功交易者的生活写照。" 与波浪理论、江恩理论等经典技术分析理论不同，本书并不是介绍某一种独特的技术分析方法，而是对之前所有的技术分析方法和指标进行系统的梳理。书中将技术指标分成了趋势跟随指标、振荡指标和复合指标三大类，并详细分析了每种指标的优缺点和应用场合。与一般的技术分析书籍相比，本书内容显得更实用。

From Publishers Weekly The timely question, What caused the current global financial crisis? provokes answers usually aimed at the level of institutions and the more abstract market logic. Ho's refreshing ethnography of the daily lives of Wall Street investment bankers takes another tack and outlines a web of practices, beliefs and structures that may be vital to understanding what keeps the market system in place despite built-in instabilities. Ho, a former business analyst and now an associate professor of anthropology at the University of Minnesota, unpacks constant downsizing, high risk/high reward job liquidity, shortsighted compensation structures, prestige and the ruse of shareholder value. Her keen eye for the significance of space illuminates workplace narratives, e.g., segregating staff by floor, function and prestige; constant and lavish recruiting events at Princeton and Harvard; and anticlimactically tawdry office space for most workers. The author exposes how elite undergraduates are immersed in a culture promoting finance as the only legitimate job, how educational pedigrees reinforce the financial world's self-image—while the actual jobs remain rigidly hierarchical (stratifying women, people of color and non–Ivy League graduates), highly unstable and isolating, encouraging a culture in which making money is the only value. (Aug.) Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Review "We're pretty familiar with the economic rationale for the regime of cost-cutting and downsizing throughout corporate America in recent decades. But Karen Ho's research greatly enriches our understanding of how Wall Street's own peculiar culture of transient relationships and relentless competition has contributed to the shareholder revolution. And, along the way, her interviews and fieldwork offer a very revealing picture of the mind of Wall Street. A fascinating and important book." Doug Henwood, editor of Left Business Observer " Karen Ho has picked an excellent time to publish her fascinating new study...patient ethnographic analysis has produced a fascinating portrait that will be refreshingly novel to most bankers...Ho peppers her account with revealing eyewitness stories...Most fascinating of all is her account of how Wall Street becomes deluded by its own rhetoric about "market efficiency"...I, for one, would vote that Ho's account becomes mandatory reading on any MBA (or investment banking course); if nothing else, it might be more entertaining than the other texts that bankers swallow so uncritically." Gillian Tett, Financial Times, 2nd October 2009

本书系对行为金融理论进行梳理和介绍的专著。上篇——行为金融理论，主要内容有：行为金融学与传统金融学的区别；行为金融学的逻辑架构；行为金融学的基本理论、主要模型及其应用。 下篇——中国的证据。运用行为金融学理论和研究方法，包括心理学实验、计量检验和博弈分析等，对中国证券市场进行了分析，并且对某些经典模型进行了修正。

本书的主要创新之处主要有如下几点：第一，解释了传统金融学理论的缺陷，提出了行为金融学的实践依据、概念、具体内容与发展前景。第二，研究了证券市场存在的异常现象和偏差行为，提出了行为金融投资模式的预期。第三，揭示了我国证券市场存在的深层矛盾，为判断证券市场基本走势和制定合理的监管政策提供依据。第四，本书研究起点高，系统性强。行为金融学作为一门新兴的学科，在我国刚刚起，需要研究的问题很多，应用前景十分广阔。

《日本蜡烛图技术:古老东方投资术的现代指南》是对技术分析书面资料的一项激动人心的、价值不菲的充实。它以详实、流畅、精辟易懂的语言，有史以来第一次，将这门古老的东方技巧介绍到美国交易者面前。“蜡烛图”相对于现有技术分析体系，不仅具有高度的“增加价值”，而且引入了全新的视角……实质上，这就确保了蜡烛图技术必将受到广泛的、衷心的欢迎。

Gold Medal Winner--Tops Sales World's Best Sales and Marketing Book "Fast, fun and immensely practical." -JOE SULLIVAN, Founder, Flextronics "Move over Neil Strauss and game theory. Pitch Anything reveals the next big thing in social dynamics: game for business." -JOSH WHITFORD, Founder, Echelon Media "What do supermodels and venture capitalists have in common?They hear hundreds of pitches a year. Pitch Anything makes sure you get the nod (or wink) you deserve." -RALPH CRAM, Investor "Pitch Anything offers a new method that will differentiate you from the rest of the pack." -JASON JONES, Senior Vice President, Jones Lang LaSalle "If you want to pitch a product, raise money, or close a deal, read Pitch Anything and put its principles to work." -STEVEN WALDMAN, Principal and Founder, Spectrum Capital "Pitch Anything opened my eyes to what I had been missing in my presentations and business interactions." -LOUIE UCCIFERRI, President, Regent Capital Group "I use Oren's unique strategies to sell deals, raise money, and handle tough situations." -TAYLOR GARRETT, Vice President, White Cap "A counter-intuitive method that works." -JAY GOYAL, CEO, SumOpti About the Book: When it comes to delivering a pitch, Oren Klaff has unparalleled credentials. Over the past 13 years, he has used his one-of-a- kind method to raise more than $400 million-and now, for the fi rst time, he describes his formula to help you deliver a winning pitch in any business situation. Whether you're selling ideas to investors, pitching a client for new business, or even negotiating for a higher salary, Pitch Anything will transform the way you position your ideas. According to Klaff, creating and presenting a great pitch isn't an art-it's a simple science. Applying the latest findings in the field of neuroeconomics, while sharing eye-opening stories of his method in action, Klaff describes how the brain makes decisions and responds to pitches. With this information, you'll remain in complete control of every stage of the pitch process. Pitch Anything introduces the exclusive STRONG method of pitching, which can be put to use immediately: Setting the Frame Telling the Story Revealing the Intrigue Offering the Prize Nailing the Hookpoint Getting a Decision One truly great pitch can improve your career, make you a lot of money-and even change your life. Success is dependent on the method you use, not how hard you try. "Better method, more money," Klaff says. "Much better method, much more money." Klaff is the best in the business because his method is much better than anyone else's. And now it's yours. Apply the tactics and strategies outlined inPitch Anything to engage and persuade your audience-and you'll have more funding and support than you ever thought possible.

"The one, only, and by far the best book synthesizing psychology and investing. In addition to providing modern, scientific knowledge about psychology, this book provides a mirror into the mind and wide breadth of knowledge of one of the leading practitioners of brief and effectual cures. Will help to cure your trading and your life." -Victor Niederhoffer, Chief Speculator, Manchester Investments Author, The Education of a Speculator and Practical Speculation "How refreshing! A book that rises above the old NLP model of the 80's and provides insights on how our relationship with the market is indeed a very personal one. Not only has Steenbarger provided some fantastic tools for the trader to transform his mindset, but he has contributed unique trading ideas as well. Brilliant!" -Linda Raschke, President, LBRGroup, Inc. "`Investigate, before you invest' was for many years the slogan of the New York Stock Exchange. I always thought a better one would be, `Investigate YOURSELF, before you invest.' The Psychology of Trading should help you increase your annual investment rate of return. Mandatory reading for anyone intending to earn a livelihood through trading. " -Yale Hirsch, The Hirsch Organization Inc., Editor, The Stock Trader's Almanac "This highly readable, highly educational, and highly entertaining book will teach you as much about yourself as about trading. It's Oliver Sacks meets Mr. Market-extraordinary tales of ordinary professionals and individuals with investment disorders, and how they successfully overcame them. It is a must-read both for private investors who have been shell-shocked in the bear market and want to learn how to start again, as well as for pros who seek an extra edge from extra inner knowledge. Steenbarger's personal voyage into the mind of the market is destined to become a classic." -Jon Markman, Managing Editor, CNBC on MSN Money Author, Online Investing and Swing Trading "Dr. Steenbarger's fascinating, highly readable blend of practical insights from his dual careers as a brilliant psychologist and trader will benefit every investor; knowing oneself is as important as knowing the market." -Laurel Kenner, CNBC.com Columnist, Author, Practical Speculation

In this time of financial crisis, a resonant exploration of economic behaviour and its consequences. Neuroscientist and former Wall Street trader John Coates here explains how we think with our body as well as our brain; when we take risks at work, in sport, on the battlefield, and the financial markets. Could the biological responses to making and losing money trigger the extreme reactions that regularly destabilise the global economy? In a series of groundbreaking experiments, Coates shows that under the pressure of risk we biologically transform, a metamorphosis he refers to as the hour between dog and wolf. Traders are especially prone; testosterone-driven when winning, tentative when cowering from losses. Drawing on recent research, Coates looks at how our bodies produce the gut feelings we often rely on and how sports science can teach us to overcome stress. The Hour Between Dog and Wolf comprehensively reveals the biology behind bubbles and crashes.

There is one constant factor in the chaos of the markets and that constant is human psychology. In the Psychology of Finance readers are shown how the marketa s characteristics that arise can be interpreted and learnt from. This revised edition contains new examples and updates to charts. There is also a summary of the characteristics of each phase of the equity market, bear bottom, rise, bull peak, and decline. It includes an appendix covering the history of economic psychology Written in an extremely readable and enjoyable style it shows how psychology can drive movements in the prices of financial assets, breakdown key market phenomena, eg, irrational attitude changes in the individual, and their indicators.

`Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, `Hugely enjoyable - compelling' `Idiosyncratically brilliant' `A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected' `A deeply intelligent, provocative book' 'Like the conversation of raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling ... Beware the Black Swan' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title. 'The Black Swan confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title. 'A deeply intelligent, provocative book ... Taleb succeeds in bringing sceptical empiricism to the masses' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title. 'A richly enjoyable read with an important message' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title. 'A provocative macro-trend tome in the tradition of The Wisdom of Crowds and The Tipping Point' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.