Meet Emily and Paul, the parents of two young children. Emily is a newly promoted executive in a large corporation, while Paul has his own business as a consultant. Their lives, like all of ours, are filled with a bewildering blizzard of emails, phone calls, yet more emails, meetings, projects, proposals, and plans. For them, just staying ahead of the storm has become a seemingly insurmountable task. In this book, we travel inside the brains of Emily and Paul as they attempt to sort the vast quantities of information they're presented with and figure out how to prioritize, organize, and act on it. Fortunately for Emily and Paul—and for readers of Your Brain at Work —they're in good hands: David Rock knows how the brain works—and more specifically, how it works in a work setting. Your Brain at Work explores: Why your brains feels so taxed, and how to take full advantage of your mental resources Why it's so hard to focus, and how to better manage distractions How to maximize your chance of finding insights that can solve seemingly insurmountable problems How to keep your cool in any situation, so that you can make the best decisions possible How to collaborate with others more effectively Why providing feedback is so difficult, and how to make it easier How to effectively change other people's behavior Rock shows how it's possible not only to survive in today's overwhelming work environment but to succeed in it—and still feel energized at the end of the day, with a sense of accomplishment.

Culled from business headlines and corporate files, this examination of the ultimate in boardroom breakdown describes, in entertaining anecdotes, the mega-mistakes made by highly regarded leaders in business and public life.

Increasingly college courses and programs require a critical thinking component—and include assignments meant to measure your critical thinking skills. ATTACKING FAULTY REASONING: A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO FALLACY-FREE ARGUMENTS, SIXTH EDITION, can help you brush up on these skills—and learn how to develop the logical, persuasive arguments you need now and throughout your career. This useful handbook addresses more than 60 common fallacies of logic with the help of over 200 memorable examples. It provides explanations and tips for avoiding fallacious thinking, and is an ideal resource when writing papers, essays, or arguments.

At times in our careers, we've all been aware of a "gut feeling" guiding our decisions. Too often, we dismiss these feelings as "hunches" and therefore untrustworthy. But renowned researcher Gary Klein reveals that, in fact, 90 percent of the critical decisions we make is based on our intuition. In his new book, THE POWER OF INTUITION , Klein shows that intuition, far from being an innate "sixth sense," is a learnable--and essential--skill. Based on interviews with senior executives who make important judgments swiftly, as well as firefighters, emergency medical staff, soldiers, and others who often face decisions with immediate life-and-death implications, Klein demonstrates that the expertise to recognize patterns and other cues that enable us--intuitively--to make the right decisions--is a natural extension of experience. Through a three-tiered process called the "Exceleration Program," Klein provides readers with the tools they need to build the intuitive skills that will help them make tough choices, spot potential problems, manage uncertainty, and size up situations quickly. Klein also shows how to communicate such decisions more effectively, coach others in the art of intuition, and recognize and defend against an overdependence on information technology. The first book to demystify the role of intuition in decision making, THE POWER OF INTUITION is essential reading for those who wish to develop their intuition skills, wherever they are in the organizational hierarchy.

This brief, inexpensive text helps the reader to think critically, using examples from the weird claims and beliefs that abound in our culture to demonstrate the sound evaluation of any claim. The authors focus on types of logical arguments and proofs, making How to Think about Weird Things a versatile supplement for logic, critical thinking, philosophy of science, or any other science appreciation courses.

"Fascinating and insightful. . . . I cannot recall a book that has made me think more about the nature of thinking." — Richard C. Lewontin Harvard University Everyone knows that optical illusions trick us because of the way we see. Now scientists have discovered that cognitive illusions, a set of biases deeply embedded in the human mind, can actually distort the way we think. In Inevitable Illusions, distinguished cognitive researcher Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini takes us on a provocative, challenging, and thoroughly entertaining exploration of the games our minds play. He opens the doors onto the newly charted realm of the cognitive unconscious to reveal the full range of illusions, showing how they inhibit our ability to reason—no matter what our educational background or IQ. Inevitable Illusions is stimulating, eye-opening food for thought.

Twenty years ago, behavioral economics did not exist as a field. Most economists were deeply skeptical--even antagonistic--toward the idea of importing insights from psychology into their field. Today, behavioral economics has become virtually mainstream. It is well represented in prominent journals and top economics departments, and behavioral economists, including several contributors to this volume, have garnered some of the most prestigious awards in the profession. This book assembles the most important papers on behavioral economics published since around 1990. Among the 25 articles are many that update and extend earlier foundational contributions, as well as cutting-edge papers that break new theoretical and empirical ground. Advances in Behavioral Economics will serve as the definitive one-volume resource for those who want to familiarize themselves with the new field or keep up-to-date with the latest developments. It will not only be a core text for students, but will be consulted widely by professional economists, as well as psychologists and social scientists with an interest in how behavioral insights are being applied in economics. The articles, which follow Colin Camerer and George Loewenstein's introduction, are by the editors, George A. Akerlof, Linda Babcock, Shlomo Benartzi, Vincent P. Crawford, Peter Diamond, Ernst Fehr, Robert H. Frank, Shane Frederick, Simon Gächter, David Genesove, Itzhak Gilboa, Uri Gneezy, Robert M. Hutchens, Daniel Kahneman, Jack L. Knetsch, David Laibson, Christopher Mayer, Terrance Odean, Ted O'Donoghue, Aldo Rustichini, David Schmeidler, Klaus M. Schmidt, Eldar Shafir, Hersh M. Shefrin, Chris Starmer, Richard H. Thaler, Amos Tversky, and Janet L. Yellen.

《决策学的诡计:解密扑克牌游戏与商业决策》内容包括：决策、决策、决策……为什么总也找不到最佳的答案？玩扑克牌时，什么时候应该弃牌，什么时候应该追加？为什么多数人会为了10英镑而拒绝下注，但同时很多人不惜倾家荡产也要创建自己的公司？为什么有些人迟迟不愿放弃每况愈下的经营项目？到底扑克牌游戏与商业决策之间有怎样的关系呢？《决策学的诡计：解密扑克牌游戏与商业决策》对人们制定决定过程中一系列复杂的环节进行了别具匠心的调查。人们一直以为只要拥有足够的知识，就可以制定出理性客观的决策，即“正确的”决策。然而，就像克里斯·布雷克在书中揭示的那样，不论商业领域、日常生活，还是扑克牌游戏，都充满了风险，正确的行为不一定总能带来期望的结果。管理者如何在一个不确定的世界里制定决策呢？制定决策时我们经常抱有哪些偏见、犯哪些错误？了解这些后，我们如何将其运用到实际当中，更好地制定决策？针对所有这些引人思考的问题，《决策学的诡计:解密扑克牌游戏与商业决策》通过分析心理学、扑克牌游戏还原真实的决策艺术，寻找完美决策。

In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance. The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery. How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire. Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.

The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in judgment and decision making. Chapters are contributed by experts in the field from various disciplines such as psychology, cognitive science, business, and law. The selection of topics reflects current trends and controversies on judgment and decision-making. Each chapter includes an overview of the past followed by current work and current directions in the field.The book:- provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making, including bounded rationality, computational modelling, and the heuristics and biases approach- portrays the major findings in the field and covers topics such as probablistic reasoning, hypothesis testing, multiattribute choice, and decision making under risk and uncertainty- presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making- explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law
The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Makingis a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in judgment and decision making. Chapters are contributed by experts in the field from various disciplines such as psychology, cognitive science, business, and law. The selection of topics reflects current trends and controversies on judgment and decision-making. Each chapter includes an overview of the past followed by current work and current directions in the field.The book:- provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making, including bounded rationality, computational modelling, and the heuristics and biases approach- portrays the major findings in the field and covers topics such as probablistic reasoning, hypothesis testing, multiattribute choice, and decision making under risk and uncertainty- presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making- explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law

This book presents the definitive exposition of 'prospect theory', a compelling alternative to the classical utility theory of choice. Building on the 1982 volume, Judgement Under Uncertainty, this book brings together seminal papers on prospect theory from economists, decision theorists, and psychologists, including the work of the late Amos Tversky, whose contributions are collected here for the first time. While remaining within a rational choice framework, prospect theory delivers more accurate, empirically verified predictions in key test cases, as well as helping to explain many complex, real-world puzzles. In this volume, it is brought to bear on phenomena as diverse as the principles of legal compensation, the equity premium puzzle in financial markets, and the number of hours that New York cab drivers choose to drive on rainy days. Theoretically elegant and empirically robust, this volume shows how prospect theory has matured into a new science of decision making.

First Edition, Winner of the prestigious William James Award from the American Psychological Association An understanding of the principles of rational decision making can help students improve the quality of their lives. Intended as an introductory textbook, the material in Rational Choice in an Uncertain World is not only of scholarly interest, but practical as well. Created specifically for courses on judgement and decision-making, this book makes research readily accessible to both undergraduate and graduate students. This Second Edition of the award-winning book, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World (1988) by Robyn M. Dawes, is sure to interest and enlighten students at all levels. This new edition features: * New student friendly chapter introductions as well as conclusions and cross-references between chapters. * Award-winning authors are respected professors with over 30 years of experience in the field. * Practical, everyday examples from such areas as finance, medicine, law, and engineering.* Comprehensive and up-to-date information keep this edition abreast of the changing ideas within the discipline * Additional discussion of the descriptive, psychological models of decision making to expand upon the original emphasis on normative, rational, 'Expected Utility Theory' models. Equipped with this knowledge and an understanding of the principles of rational decision making, both undergraduate and graduate students can help improve the quality of their choices and, thus, their life.

What if there were a magic pill that could make you happier, turn you into a better parent, solve a number of your teenager's behavior problems, reduce racial prejudice, and close the achievement gap in education? Well, there is no such magic pill-but there is a new scientifically based approach called story editing that can accomplish all of this. It works by redirecting the stories we tell about ourselves and the world around us, with subtle prompts, in ways that lead to lasting change. In Redirect , world-renowned psychologist Timothy Wilson shows how story-editing works and how you can use it in your everyday life. The other surprising news is that many existing approaches-from the multi-billion dollar self-help industry to programs that discourage drug use and drinking-don't work at all. In fact, some even have the opposite effect. Most programs are not adequately tested, many do not work, and some even do harm. For example, there are programs that have inadvertently made people unhappy, raised the crime rate, increased teen pregnancy, and even hastened people's deaths-in part by failing to redirect people's stories in healthy ways. In short, Wilson shows us what works, what doesn't, and why. Fascinating, groundbreaking, and practical, Redirect demonstrates the remarkable power small changes can have on the ways we see ourselves and the world around us, and how we can use this in our everyday lives. In the words of David G. Myers, "With wit and wisdom, Wilson shows us how to spare ourselves worthless (or worse) interventions, think smarter, and live well."

Is our case strong enough to go to trial? Will interest rates go up? Can I trust this person? Such questions - and the judgments required to answer them - are woven into the fabric of everyday experience. This 2002 book examines how people make such judgments. The study of human judgment was transformed in the 1970s, when Kahneman and Tversky introduced their 'heuristics and biases' approach and challenged the dominance of strictly rational models. Their work highlighted the reflexive mental operations used to make complex problems manageable and illuminated how the same processes can lead to both accurate and dangerously flawed judgments. The heuristics and biases framework generated a torrent of influential research in psychology - research that reverberated widely and affected scholarship in economics, law, medicine, management, and political science. This book compiles the most influential research in the heuristics and biases tradition since the initial collection of 1982 (by Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky).

our modern world, even though it was appropriate to older, simpler times. Working with imagination and often hilarious computer simulations, Dietrich Dorner provides a compass for intelligent planning and decision-making that can sharpen the skills of managers and policy-makers everywhere.

In hindsight, every great idea seems obvious. But how can you be the person who comes up with those ideas? In this revised and expanded edition of his groundbreaking THINKERTOYS, creativity expert Michael Michalko reveals life-changing tools that will help you think like a genius. From the linear to the intuitive, this comprehensive handbook details ingenious creative-thinking techniques for approaching problems in unconventional ways. Through fun and thought-provoking exercises, you'll learn how to create original ideas that will improve your personal life and your business life. Michalko's techniques show you how to look at the same information as everyone else and see something different. With hundreds of hints, tricks, tips, tales, and puzzles, THINKERTOYS will open your mind to a world of innovative solutions to everyday and not-so-everyday problems. Reviews:"Designed to change the way you think."--Wall Street Journal"Shows you how to expand your imagination."--Newsweek"A special find. Period."--Executive Edge"A must-have book in any business setting."--Women in Business

The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.