“[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.” – Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business– Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives.

概率论作为数学的一个重要分支，在众多领域发挥着越来越突出的作用。本书是全球高校采用率最高的概率论教材之一，初版于1976年，多年来不断重印修订，是作者几十年教学和研究经验的结晶。 本书叙述清晰，例子丰富，特别针对学生的兴趣选取了内容，有助于学生建立概率直觉。第8版与时俱进，增加了很多新的习题和例子，并新增两节内容，分别推导具有均匀分布和几何分布的随机变量和的分布。本书还附有大量习题、理论习题和自检习题，其中自检习题部分还给出全部解答，有利于巩固和自测所学知识。

概率论（第3版），ISBN：9787506283403，作者：（美）杜雷特

Ross's classic bestseller, Introduction to Probability Models, has been used extensively by professionals and as the primary text for a first undergraduate course in applied probability. It provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes, and shows how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. With the addition of several new sections relating to actuaries, this text is highly recommended by the Society of Actuaries. Ancillary list: Instructor's Manual - http://textbooks.elsevier.com/web/manuals.aspx?isbn=9780123743886 Student Solutions Manual - http://www.elsevierdirect.com/product.jsp?isbn=9780123756862#42 Sample Chapter, eBook - http://www.elsevierdirect.com/product.jsp?isbn=9780123756862 New to this Edition: 65% new chapter material including coverage of finite capacity queues, insurance risk models and Markov chains Contains compulsory material for new Exam 3 of the Society of Actuaries containing several sections in the new exams Updated data, and a list of commonly used notations and equations, a robust ancillary package, including a ISM, SSM, test bank, and companion website Includes SPSS PASW Modeler and SAS JMP software packages which are widely used in the field Hallmark features: Superior writing style Excellent exercises and examples covering the wide breadth of coverage of probability topics Real-world applications in engineering, science, business and economics

Modern and measure-theory based, this text is intended primarily for the first-year graduate course in probability theory. The book focuses attention on examples while developing theory. There is an emphasis on results that can be used to solve problems in the hopes that those who apply probability to work will find this a useful reference.

Modern and measure-theory based, this text is intended primarily for the first-year graduate course in probability theory. The book focuses attention on examples while developing theory. There is an emphasis on results that can be used to solve problems in the hopes that those who apply probability to work will find this a useful reference.

A First Course in Probability, Eighth Edition , features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

Assuming only an elementary background in discrete mathematics, this textbook is an excellent introduction to the probabilistic techniques and paradigms used in the development of probabilistic algorithms and analyses. It includes random sampling, expectations, Markov's and Chevyshev's inequalities, Chernoff bounds, balls and bins models, the probabilistic method, Markov chains, MCMC, martingales, entropy, and other topics. The book is designed to accompany a one- or two-semester course for graduate students in computer science and applied mathematics.

在线阅读本书 Since the publication of the first edition of this classic textbook over thirty years ago, tens of thousands of students have used A Course in Probability Theory . New in this edition is an introduction to measure theory that expands the market, as this treatment is more consistent with current courses. While there are several books on probability, Chung's book is considered a classic, original work in probability theory due to its elite level of sophistication.

《应用随机过程概率模型导论(英文版·第9版)》叙述深入浅出，涉及面广。主要内容有随机变量、条件概率及条件期望、离散及连续马尔可夫链、指数分布、泊松过程、布朗运动及平稳过程、更新理论及排队论等；也包括了随机过程在物理、生物、运筹、网络、遗传、经济、保险、金融及可靠性中的应用。特别是有关随机模拟的内容，给随机系统运行的模拟计算提供了有力的工具。除正文外，《应用随机过程概率模型导论(英文版·第9版)》有约700道习题，其中带星号的习题还提供了解答。 《应用随机过程概率模型导论(英文版·第9版)》可作为概率论与统计、计算机科学、保险学、物理学、社会科学、生命科学、管理科学与工程学等专业随机过程基础课教材。

《概率、随机变量与随机过程》是美国著名学者A·帕普里斯教授所著的一本经典教材。自1965年第1版问世以来至今已第4版，一直被美国多所大学用作相关专业的研究生教材。它的特点是将高深的理论恰当地应用于工程实际，因而深受工程界专业人士的青睐。本书（第4版）在保持前三版风格和精华的基础上作了大量的修订：更新了约三分之一的章节内容，包括几个新的专题和新增的第15、16章，增加了大量的新例子，进一步澄清了一些复杂的概念，使读者能更容易地理解它们。 本书可供无线电通信系统、信号处理、控制理论、优化、滤波等专业的研究生和本科高年级学生使用，也可供相关领域的科开人员和工程技术人员参考。

《概率导论(第2版)》是在MIT开设概率论入门课程的基础上编写的, 其内容全面, 例题和习题丰富, 结构层次性强, 能够满足不同读者的需求。书中介绍了概率模型、离散随机变量和连续随机变量、多元随机变量以及极限理论等概率论基本知识, 还介绍了矩母函数、条件概率的现代定义、独立随机变量的和、最小二乘估计等高级内容。 《概率导论(第2版)》可作为所有高等院校概率论入门的基础教程, 也可作为有关概率论方面的参考书。

《概率和鞅》是一部现代概率本科教程,内容生动,叙述严格,主要以离散时间的Doob鞅理论为框架,证明了Kolmogorov强大数定理和三级数理论以及通过运用特征函数的中心极限定理这些重要的结果。概率论作为一门应用学科已经广泛的应用于物理、工程、生物、经济以及社会科学等众多领域。

《概率论及其应用》(第3版)涉及面极广，不仅讨论了概率论在离散空间中的诸多课题，也涉及了概率论在物理学、化学、生物学(特别是遗传学)、博弈论及经济学等方面的应用，主要内容有：样本空间及其上的概率计算，独立随机变量之和的随机起伏，事件的组合及条件概率，离散随机变量及其数字特征，大数定律，离散的马尔可夫过程及其各种重要特征，更新理论等，除正文外，《概率论及其应用》(第3版)还附有六七百道习题和大量的附录。

The standard rules of probability can be interpreted as uniquely valid principles in logic. In this book, E. T. Jaynes dispels the imaginary distinction between 'probability theory' and 'statistical inference', leaving a logical unity and simplicity, which provides greater technical power and flexibility in applications. This book goes beyond the conventional mathematics of probability theory, viewing the subject in a wider context. New results are discussed, along with applications of probability theory to a wide variety of problems in physics, mathematics, economics, chemistry and biology. It contains many exercises and problems, and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate level courses involving data analysis. The material is aimed at readers who are already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher. The book will be of interest to scientists working in any area where inference from incomplete information is necessary.

Major changes in this edition include the substitution of probabilistic arguments for combinatorial artifices, and the addition of new sections on branching processes, Markov chains, and the De Moivre-Laplace theorem.

《初等概率论(第4版)(英文版)》是一部介绍概率论及其应用的入门教程。其原始版本面世已经有30余年，但仍然是本科一二年级的经典概率教程。在第4版中增加了两章讲述应用和数学金融。传承前面版本详细、严谨的风格，讲述了有价证券和期货理论的基本知识。书中用最初等的方法讲述了概率测度、随机变量、分布以及期望等基本概念。离散和连续的案例都有所涉及，在讲述后者的时候运用了微积分知识。配以大量的典型例子重点讲述概率推理，集中介绍了组合问题、Poison过程、随机漫步、遗传模型和Markov链。每章末都附有习题及其解答。

Major changes in this edition include the substitution of probabilistic arguments for combinatorial artifices, and the addition of new sections on branching processes, Markov chains, and the De Moivre-Laplace theorem.

《概率论教程:英文版(第3版)》是一本享誉世界的经典概率论教材，令众多读者受益无穷。自出版以来。已被世界75％以上的大学的数万名学生使用。《概率论教程:英文版(第3版)》内容丰富，逻辑清晰，叙述严谨。不仅可以拓展读者的视野。而且还将为其后续的学习和研究打下坚实基础。此外，《概率论教程:英文版(第3版)》的习题较多，都经过细心的遴选，从易到难，便于读者巩固练习。本版补充了有关测度和积分方面的内容，并增加了一些习题。

《概率论沉思录(英文版)》将概率和统计推断融合在一起，用新的观点生动地描述了概率论在物理学、数学、经济学、化学和生物学等领域中的广泛应用，尤其是它阐述了贝叶斯理论的丰富应用，弥补了其他概率和统计教材的不足。全书分为两大部分。第一部分包括10章内容，讲解抽样理论、假设检验、参数估计等概率论的原理及其初等应用；第二部分包括12章内容，讲解概率论的高级应用，如在物理测量、通信理论中的应用。《概率论沉思录(英文版)》还附有大量习题，内容全面，体例完整。 《概率论沉思录(英文版)》内容不局限于某一特定领域，适合涉及数据分析的各领域工作者阅读，也可作为高年级本科生和研究生相关课程的教材。